The Future of Innovation in China: "China Will Overtake Position Germany in 20 years" Or "Not in Our Life Time"

I just listened to the IP Think Tank Podcast of February 16, 2009 which is an initiative of Duncan Bucknell Company. Besides an interesting review of the WTO report on DS 362, the IP Think Tank Podcast has a lot to offer to any IPR enthusiast. At the end, Mr Nicholas Redfearn, Rouse country manager in Hong Kong, told about two recent books that convey two diametrical opposite views of China's path to patent and innovation growth (the assumption implied is that there is a strong correlation between the growth of patents and innovation in a country).

• Hutton, Will, 'Writing on The Wall (which refers to idiom: portent of doom or misfortune, see here): Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy', Simon & Schuster, November 2006. Mr Hutton writes according to Mr Redfearn: "the number of triadic patents (US, Europe and Japan) from China is too small for it to sustain the kind of growth and innovation you read about."
• Gupta, Anil K., Haiyan Wang, 'Getting China and India right: Strategies for Leveraging the World's Fastest-Growing Economies for Global Advantage' Wiley, John & Sons, February 2009, while Messrs. Gupta and Wang argue, according to Mr Redfearn: "China is producing vast numbers of patents and with the current rate it will overtake Germany by 2020."

Gupta and Wang's book is the most recent, whether it will be more accurate on this, we will have to see. What is your opinion about it? Let me know (ipdragon at gmail dot com). Listen to the IP Think Tank Podcast here.